Skip to content

Extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims

ABDUCTIO is a collective intelligence framework for rigorously validating ambitious ideas before you commit. We separate truth from confidence to de-risk the future.

View Whitepaper

The ABDUCTIO Process

Systematic validation through collective intelligence.

1. Define Claim

Submit an extraordinary claim with initial evidence and context.

2. Decompose

The system breaks it into testable sub-claims and assumptions.

3. Expert Analysis

Domain experts & AI agents assess each component with staked credibility.

4. Aggregate

Calculate final truth and confidence scores from the decomposed analysis.

Why ABDUCTIO?

For when the stakes are high and the evidence is scarce.

De-Risking Moonshots

Validate capital-intensive projects like fusion energy or advanced materials before committing to billion-dollar prototypes.

Long Feedback Loops

Assess complex systems with multi-decade outcomes, such as climate interventions or new economic models.

Evaluating Frontier Science

Rigorously analyze high-risk, high-reward ideas that lack mainstream consensus, from consciousness to UAP tech.

Informing Strategic Decisions

Generate structured theoretical evidence to guide policy, investment, or governance when empirical data is unavailable.

Interactive Validation Explorer

ABDUCTIO is domain-agnostic. Switch between examples to see the same method applied in different domains.

Chasing Likes Over Changing Lives: Does the current system misallocate practitioner effort?

Assessment of whether current client acquisition systems in wellness/therapy markets push practitioners toward content production (vanity metrics) at the expense of outcomes, with poor ROI for most practitioners.

Version: V1.0•Nodes: 6•Decompositions: 1/1
Current Assessment (Step 2)
Target: 80% confidence
Credence
83%
Computed from sub-claims
Confidence
95%
+13% from analysis
Belief Strength83%
Certainty Level95%
0%80% target100%
Confidence threshold reached! Ready for decision.
Step
2of 2
Decomposed Node

Chasing Likes Over Changing Lives: Does the current system misallocate practitioner effort?

High credence
Credence:83%(computed)
Confidence:95%(computed)(+13%)

Understanding ABDUCTIO V2

Credence: Degree of belief in the proposition (0–100%)
Confidence: Certainty about the credence assessment (0–100%)
Credence Ranges:Very high credence (≥90%)High credence (61–89%)Uncertain (40–60%)Low credence (10–39%)Very low credence (<10%)
Confidence Line Styles:High confidence(solid, ≥80%)Medium confidence(dashed, 50–79%)Low confidence(dotted, <50%)
Value Propagation:Credence values are dynamically computed from children when a node is decomposed
Stopping Rule:Analysis continues until confidence reaches 80% (current: 95%)
Open Source & Verifiable

Our framework is fully open-source. All validation logic and agent capabilities are transparent and auditable. We believe trust is earned through radical transparency.

Stop guessing. Start validating.

Ready to de-risk your next big idea? See the framework in action.