The Missing Trust Infrastructure
How the
Promise Protocol
Works
Justify expectations and verify outcomes to find the signal in endless noise
Current Reality: ineffective knowledge flow
"A Lie Can Travel Halfway Around the World While the Truth Is Putting On Its Shoes"
Ironically, falsely attributed to Mark Twain
Remember those “one weird trick” ads from the 2000s? They seem tame now. Today’s feed is a firehose of confident claims with no common way to value their truth. Some are hidden gems. Many are costly mirages.
When the stakes are higher
History shows that true, useful ideas often spread too slowly. Handwashing in medicine is the classic example—clear benefits, decades to adopt. Our information networks routinely underperform at moving good ideas from discovery to practice.
That’s why it’s reasonable to think a few “one weird trick” ideas might help—and just as reasonable to expect most to be noise. We need a way to tell the difference.
Future Reality: measuring promise with confidence
A continuous trust loop
Decide (Abductio)
Before acting, estimate how likely the claim is (credence) and how stable that estimate is (confidence). Ask whether it’s worth investigating more—or stopping and trying it.
Do (Sponsio)
When you act, make explicit promises with skin in the game (stakes). Record what actually happened. Those outcomes feed back into Abductio so future decisions get smarter and cheaper.
Credence (B)
How likely the claim is (0–1).
Confidence (C)
How stable that credence estimate is.
Merit (Md)
Per-domain promise-keeping track record.
Together, these phases form a closed loop where investigation informs action, and outcomes calibrate future investigation.
PRE-COMMIT REASONING
Recognizing merit (or lack thereof)
Explore how Abductio behaves across different credence–confidence situations. Pick a quadrant to see the ad and step through the investigation.
OWT: Email at 08:00–09:00 → +5–10% replies
Quadrant: Safe Bet (p≥τ, k≥k*). Implement directly; monitoring optional.
Morning send window lifts replies
Abductio Deep Dive
How Abductio decides when to stop investigating
High stakes deserve deeper checks. Low stakes don’t. Abductio finds the “just enough” point using a simple cost model and the EVSI gate.
POST-COMMIT VERIFICATION
How Sponsio makes promises easy to make—but expensive to break
When Abductio says “stop and act,” Sponsio turns claims into promises with stakes, records outcomes, and updates merit — domain‑specific reputation that is costly to game.
How Promises Work in Sponsio
Agents make promises with staked value. OTHER agents independently assess whether those promises were kept—also with their own stakes. Both sides have skin in the game.
- • Promise-maker stakes: Loses stake if promise is broken
- • Assessors stake: Lose stake if assessment is dishonest
- • Both sides have skin in the game, creating aligned incentives for honesty
Matching Intentions to Promises (Sponsio)
From an intention to a single, verifiable promise
Behind every search is a promise that someone wants kept. Sponsio enables the Promise Engine. Type an intention, then see matching promises and high‑merit resources that can keep them. Say goodbye to lemon markets.
Matching Promises for “Quit smoking”
Assistants for the selected promise
Smoking Cessation Specialist · Merit: 99.2% · 142 promises kept · Boston, MA
Behavioral Therapist · Merit: 97.8% · 89 promises kept · Austin, TX
Skin in the Game
Practical options for stakes
Start simple with deposits and platform credits, then mature into a full credit system where value compounds over time.
1) Sponsio Deposits
Payment holds (e.g., via Stripe) that settle based on promise status. Money moves when promises are kept.Can continue as-is or onramp to Credits.
2) Sponsio Creds
Non‑transferable, non‑cashable credits usable on‑platform. Lighter‑weight, still costly to lose.Can continue as-is or onramp to Credits.
3) Sponsio Credits
Advanced system where value accrues and compounds. Earned through promise-keeping, spent on investigations, and backed by real economic activity.Requires careful legal structuring; unlocks network effects.
This is how we fix
the internet's
trust problem
Not with more moderation. Not with points or vibes. With infrastructure that makes promises verifiable — and verification economically rational.